**Bitcoin’s Recent Price Correction: A Closer Look**
Bitcoin has recently experienced a price correction, dropping 16% below its all-time high (ATH), which signifies a notable pullback in its current market cycle. This correction has pushed the price dip beyond the cycle’s average drawdown of -8.54%, yet it remains well above the maximum drawdown of -26.25%. In simpler terms, while the market faced a significant crash on Tuesday, the overall pullback is relatively moderate when compared to previous cycles. For context, Bitcoin’s price fell by over 10% yesterday, dipping below $86K, marking a new low for 2025. This shift sent ripples through the broader altcoin markets, with tokens like Dogecoin, Solana, and Shiba Inu also hitting new yearly lows.
**Comparing Bitcoin Volatility Across Cycles**
One of the most interesting aspects of Bitcoin’s current market cycle is its reduced volatility compared to earlier bull runs. Historical data reveals the following drawdown patterns:
– **2011-2013:** Average drawdown of -19.19%, with a maximum drop of -49.45%.
– **2015-2017:** Average drawdown of -11.49%, maximum drawdown of -36.01%.
– **2018-2021:** Average drawdown of -20.41%, with the worst drop reaching -62.62%.
In contrast, the ongoing cycle has proven to be the least volatile. This trend suggests that Bitcoin’s market behavior has become more stable over time, even with occasional price corrections. Analysts attribute this newfound stability to Bitcoin’s evolution into an institutional asset.
**Bitcoin’s Performance at 826 Days Since the Cycle Low**
Since hitting its most recent cycle low of $15,400 in January 2023, Bitcoin has shown remarkable growth, rising by 5.48x over the past 826 days. To put this into perspective, previous cycles have demonstrated much more dramatic gains at similar points:
– **2011-2015:** A staggering 284.28x increase.
– **2015-2018:** A substantial 7.26x rise.
– **2018-2022:** Bitcoin increased by 16.86x during this period.
While the current cycle’s price performance may seem modest compared to earlier bull runs, it remains impressive, especially given the more stable and less volatile nature of the current market cycle. Essentially, Bitcoin’s current correction is well within historical norms, with its lower volatility and steady growth reflecting the market’s maturation.
**BTC Outlook Amid Bearish Performance**
As of now, Bitcoin is working to regain its footing following yesterday’s drop. Although it briefly reached $89K today, it has since retreated to a lower value of $85,500. According to The Crypto Basic, on-chain analysis indicates that the risk of further declines will persist in the short term unless Bitcoin can quickly recover above $92,500. This level is crucial, as it represents the point where most short-term traders are in profit. If this threshold is not met, traders may cut their losses, potentially leading Bitcoin to revisit $71K.
