XRP and DOGE Fall Below Zero
XRP and DOGE are showing significantly negative 365-day MVRV readings even after the broader crypto market’s recent rebound, according to onchain analytics platform Santiment. The data puts both assets well below Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink, whose corresponding readings are slightly above zero.
Santiment reported on September 23 that XRP’s 365-day MVRV stood at approximately -11.75%, while DOGE’s was around -19.26%. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink were slightly above 0%, indicating that the average participant represented in those measurements was holding a relatively small unrealized profit.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares an asset’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization. Santiment’s 365-day version focuses on coins or tokens that have moved at least once during the previous year, making it useful for examining the aggregate cost basis of more recently active holders.
A negative reading means the current market value of the relevant holdings is below their estimated realized value. In XRP’s case, the -11.75% figure suggests that the measured group is, on average, sitting below its estimated acquisition cost, while DOGE’s -19.26% reading points to an even larger gap.
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That difference is important because unrealized losses can affect market behavior. Holders who are already underwater have less immediate incentive to sell simply to lock in profits, while traders holding gains may have more reason to take profits if prices move higher. However, MVRV does not measure future demand, liquidity or the direction of price by itself.
Santiment has historically described MVRV as a mean-reversion-style indicator that measures deviations from an aggregate market cost basis. The analytics firm also notes that rising MVRV generally corresponds with a larger pool of unrealized profits, while lower readings indicate weaker profitability among the measured holders.
What the Discount Could Mean for XRP and DOGE
For XRP, the current reading comes after a period of renewed network and market activity. Santiment separately reported on September 22 that XRP’s market value had moved above $1.60 for the first time since February 4, alongside 1,917 transactions involving at least $100,000. The combination shows that price recovery and onchain activity can improve even while the 365-day holder cohort remains below its aggregate cost basis.
DOGE presents a different profile, with its 365-day MVRV at roughly -19.26%. The deeper negative reading means the average cost-basis gap for the measured group is larger than for XRP, although that alone does not establish that DOGE has greater recovery potential. Price performance still depends on new demand, liquidity, broader market conditions and changes in holder behavior.
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Santiment’s comparison also shows why looking only at price can miss part of the market structure. Bitcoin, Ethereum and LINK being slightly above zero does not automatically make those assets overvalued, just as XRP and DOGE being below zero does not automatically make them undervalued. MVRV is one measure of unrealized gains and losses, not a standalone valuation model.
The data can nevertheless become useful when combined with other indicators. A deeply negative MVRV alongside rising network activity, improving liquidity and stronger demand would tell a different story from a negative MVRV accompanied by declining activity and continued selling. Investors therefore need to distinguish between a market that is recovering while holders remain underwater and one where losses reflect continuing weakness.
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For XRP holders, the -11.75% reading creates a notable gap between market price recovery and the estimated cost basis of the 365-day cohort. For DOGE, the -19.26% figure is even further below zero. Whether either gap closes will depend on future price movement and whether existing holders accumulate, sell or remain inactive.
The broader takeaway is that the recent rebound has not erased losses for every group of crypto participants. Santiment’s latest comparison shows a split between assets where the average one-year active holder is marginally profitable and those where the same cohort remains underwater.
XRP and DOGE therefore stand out in the latest 365-day MVRV data, but the figures should be treated as market-structure information rather than automatic trading signals. A negative MVRV can identify a market where many holders remain below cost basis, yet a sustained recovery still requires buyers, liquidity and continued demand. For XRP and DOGE, the next changes in MVRV could reveal whether the current discounts are narrowing as prices and onchain activity develop.
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