After smashing through the $111,000 mark in late May, Bitcoin has reignited bullish sentiment across the crypto market. But with the third quarter approaching — historically the weakest period for the world’s leading cryptocurrency — investors are now asking the big question: is this momentum sustainable, or are we due for another cooling-off period?
According to a May 28 market analysis by crypto exchange Bitfinex, it’s too early to tell whether Bitcoin’s latest surge is the start of another parabolic run or just a temporary spike. The analysts argue that the coming weeks will play a critical role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
“The breakout above $111,000 is certainly encouraging,” Bitfinex noted, “but without follow-through, this move could end up being a local high rather than a springboard into a stronger Q3 rally.”
Interestingly, a pause in upward momentum might actually be what Bitcoin needs right now. The analysts emphasized that a phase of sideways consolidation — or even a mild pullback — could serve as a necessary breather, giving the market a chance to recalibrate and build a sturdier base for future gains.
This pattern wouldn’t be unusual. After Bitcoin’s previous record of $73,679 in March 2024, the price entered a wide trading range for several months, bouncing within a $20,000 band until U.S. election news helped inject fresh volatility into the market.
Historical data suggests the third quarter is often a tough one for Bitcoin. Since 2013, Q3 has been its weakest-performing quarter, with an average return of just 6.03%, according to CoinGlass. In contrast, Q2 has historically delivered a much stronger average return of 27.25%. But the real star of the calendar year for Bitcoin tends to be Q4 — a period known for strong rallies.
Adding to the current uncertainty is the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that those who’ve held BTC for fewer than 155 days have been locking in profits aggressively. In the last month alone, more than $11.4 billion in profits have been realized by this group, which suggests some near-term supply pressure may still weigh on the market.
As of publication, Bitcoin was hovering around $108,929, while the average cost basis for short-term holders sat at roughly $95,781 — translating to an average unrealized profit of about 13.7%.
Despite this, signs of underlying strength remain. One key indicator is the growing demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In just five days — from May 19 to May 23 — approximately $2.75 billion flowed into these ETFs. Analysts view this as a major signal that institutional interest is alive and well, helping to balance out short-term sell pressure from retail traders.
In addition, the market appears to be maturing. Low volatility, steady ETF inflows, and a spot market premium are all markers that the asset is behaving more like a traditional investment vehicle. Bitfinex believes these trends could set the stage for a more sustained move higher — once the macroeconomic landscape becomes clearer.
That clarity may come soon. Investors are eyeing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next interest rate announcement on June 18, hoping for signs of loosening monetary policy. The Fed held rates steady in May between 4.25% and 4.50%, but with inflation pressures and recession fears in play, any shift in tone could jolt crypto markets.
Bitcoin’s recent climb wasn’t entirely unexpected. Back in March, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten gave even odds that BTC would set a new record high before June. Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts echoed similar sentiments, forecasting new all-time highs before Q2 wrapped up.
Now, as Q2 nears its end, all eyes are on what lies ahead. Will Bitcoin push into a new “aggressive leg higher” in Q3 — or does history have other plans?
