A New Era of BRICS Geopolitical Competition
The 16th BRICS summit marked a significant turning point for the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions. With Türkiye and Azerbaijan expressing interest in joining the bloc, and Armenia receiving an invitation from Russia, the geopolitical landscape of the region is undergoing a dramatic transformation. This shift raises critical questions about the future of these regions and the growing influence of China within the BRICS alliance.
Türkiye: A Balancing Act Between East and West
Türkiye, a NATO ally and EU candidate, has long sought to balance its foreign policy between East and West. By considering a potential BRICS membership, Türkiye aims to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce its reliance on Western institutions. However, such a move could strain its relations with the West and potentially lead to a realignment of its geopolitical priorities.
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China, recognizing Türkiye’s strategic importance, may seek to deepen its economic and political ties with Ankara. This could further enhance China’s influence in the region, challenging the traditional Western-dominated order.
South Caucasus: A New Geopolitical Chessboard
The presence of Armenia and Azerbaijan at the BRICS summit signifies a significant shift in the South Caucasus. Both countries are seeking to diversify their economies and improve their infrastructure, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative offers a promising avenue for achieving these goals.
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However, increased Chinese influence in the region could have far-reaching consequences. As China expands its economic and political footprint, it may seek to shape the region’s political and security landscape to its advantage. This could lead to increased competition with Western powers and potentially undermine regional stability.
The West’s Counter-Strategy
The growing influence of BRICS in the Black Sea and South Caucasus poses a significant challenge to Western interests. The EU, in particular, has invested heavily in the region, aiming to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies. However, the rise of China as a global power could undermine these efforts.
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To counter the BRICS bloc, the West must adopt a more proactive approach, offering attractive economic incentives, supporting democratic reforms, and strengthening security cooperation with regional partners. By doing so, the West can help to preserve its influence in the region and mitigate the potential negative consequences of BRICS expansion.
The future of the Black Sea and South Caucasus is uncertain. As the BRICS bloc continues to grow and evolve, these regions will be at the forefront of a new geopolitical competition. The ability of the West to adapt to this changing landscape will determine the ultimate outcome of this struggle for influence.
