Solana, a leading blockchain network, could be on the cusp of a major price surge if a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) receives regulatory approval in the United States. This is according to a recent report by crypto market maker GSR Markets.
The report, released on June 27th, coincidentally coincided with VanEck’s surprise filing for a spot in Solana ETF. GSR, which holds Solana (SOL) tokens, predicts a potential price increase of up to 9 times for SOL. This optimistic scenario, dubbed the “blue sky” scenario, hinges on the assumption that spot Solana ETFs attract 14% of the capital inflows witnessed by spot at Bitcoin ETFs since their January launch, adjusted for market capitalization.
This scenario could propel SOL’s price from its current $149 to over $1,320, pushing Solana’s market cap to a staggering $614 billion. However, GSR acknowledges less bullish possibilities. Their “bear” and “baseline” scenarios predict more modest price increases of 1.4x and 3.4x, respectively, depending on the ETF’s ability to capture investor interest.
The report highlights that these estimates could be even higher if the Solana ETF distributes staking rewards, a feature absent in approved spot Ether ETFs. GSR believes Solana is a strong candidate for a spot ETF, potentially leading to the biggest price impact yet witnessed in the cryptocurrency market.
Despite GSR’s optimism, regulatory approval remains a hurdle. Experts like Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believe a change in leadership at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be necessary. The SEC, under Chair Gary Gensler, has classified SOL as a security in lawsuits against cryptocurrency exchanges. This classification could significantly complicate the approval process compared to Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
Further muddying the waters is the recent US election, considered a “huge variable” for Solana ETF approval. However, there are positive signs. VanEck’s application follows a similar filing for a spot Solana ETF in Canada by 3iQ, marking a North American first. Additionally, the Solana ecosystem has garnered praise from major asset managers like Franklin Templeton, although their future involvement in a Solana ETF remains unclear.
With over $1 billion already invested in Solana exchange-traded products globally, the future of a US-based spot ETF holds significant weight for the cryptocurrency‘s price and adoption. Whether it triggers a meteoric rise or a more measured growth trajectory depends on regulatory decisions and investor enthusiasm.
