As global markets await clarity on US-China trade negotiations, some crypto analysts believe the outcome could offer key insights into Bitcoin’s evolving role — especially whether it’s becoming a genuine safe-haven asset.
Over the past month, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience compared to traditional markets. Following former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on April 7 — dubbed “Liberation Day” — Bitcoin initially dipped to $75,000 but rebounded sharply. By the end of April, it was trading around $95,000, marking a 27% surge, even as major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell.
This divergence has reignited debate over Bitcoin’s utility during geopolitical stress. Some, like crypto analyst “Daan Crypto,” suggest that the digital asset’s recent strength might be tied to broader concerns about international trade disruptions.
“Bitcoin significantly outperformed stocks during a turbulent April,” Daan pointed out on May 11. “If trade uncertainty was the primary driver, then we should see Bitcoin’s outperformance taper off once a meaningful deal with China is finalized.”
Interestingly, while the White House recently signaled “substantial progress” in its discussions with Chinese officials, no formal agreement has been reached yet. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that more details would be shared soon and described the latest round of talks as “productive.”
But what if Bitcoin continues to climb, even after a deal is confirmed? In that case, Daan argues, the tariffs may not be as central to Bitcoin’s performance as some assume. “It would suggest that BTC’s momentum is being fueled by other macroeconomic factors — or simply its growing appeal as a hedge.”
Other market watchers are taking a broader view. Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, believes a finalized trade deal could ease institutional hesitations and unlock more capital for digital assets. “If US-China talks conclude successfully and we see potential rate cuts on the horizon, institutional appetite for crypto is likely to grow,” Mei said.
Jupiter Zheng, a researcher at HashKey Capital, echoed that sentiment. According to him, a trade deal could signal stability in traditional markets, prompting investors to reallocate capital into higher-growth alternatives like Bitcoin. “Especially if it puts downward pressure on the dollar or stimulates liquidity in emerging markets, Bitcoin could be a major beneficiary,” Zheng said.
However, not everyone is convinced that Bitcoin’s recent surge can sustain itself without concrete developments. Analyst Will Clemente shared on X (formerly Twitter) that BTC’s momentum appears to be cooling. “We’re probably going to need something real and specific on the China front to keep this rally alive,” he noted.
For now, markets — both crypto and traditional — remain in wait-and-see mode. But the days ahead could clarify whether Bitcoin’s recent resilience is a short-term anomaly or a sign of its growing legitimacy in times of geopolitical tension.
