The likelihood of U.S. President Joe Biden exiting the presidential race has surged to 80% on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, amid growing reports that he might make the decision as soon as this weekend.
What Happened
Just two days ago, these odds stood at 33%, but they have more than doubled since then. Axios reported on Thursday morning that Democratic leaders and close allies are increasingly urging Biden to step down in the coming days, citing insights from several top Democrats. At 81 years old and recently testing positive for Covid-19, Biden has been under intense scrutiny following a lackluster debate performance last month that reignited discussions about finding a replacement.
Over the past week, prominent Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), have advised him to withdraw, as reported by ABC News. Additionally, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi informed Biden that polls indicate he cannot beat GOP presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump and warned that Biden’s candidacy could “destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House,” according to CNN.
Former President Barack Obama has also weighed in, telling allies that Joe Biden “needs to seriously consider his viability to win reelection,” The Washington Post reported on Thursday.
This internal party pressure is mounting as the Democratic National Convention approaches, scheduled for August 19 in Chicago, where Democrats will choose their presidential nominee.
Speculation on Potential Contenders
Speculation about potential Democratic contenders is rife, with names such as Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer being floated.
On Polymarket, bettors currently favor Harris as the Democratic nominee, with her odds set at 61% as of Thursday afternoon. In the past 24 hours, meme coins inspired by potential Biden successors have seen a significant rally.
What’s Next
This development comes at a critical time for the Democratic Party and the broader political landscape. It also coincides with the upcoming Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets conference on November 19, where the implications of political changes on digital assets and blockchain technology are likely to be key discussion points.
The surge in predictions that Joe Biden might exit the race has sparked intense speculation and debate within the Democratic Party. With the Democratic National Convention looming, the party faces a pivotal moment that could reshape the course of the 2024 election.
If Biden does decide to step down, the Democrats will need to quickly coalesce around a new candidate who can galvanize the party and present a strong challenge to the Republican nominee, likely former President Donald Trump. The potential shift in leadership has also led to discussions about the direction of the party’s platform and strategy moving forward.
The Stakes
The stakes are high, not just for the Democratic Party but for the entire nation. A change in the Democratic nominee could alter the dynamics of the election, influencing voter turnout, campaign strategies, and the overall political climate. The party must carefully navigate this transition to ensure they maintain a competitive edge in the race for the White House.
As the political landscape evolves, the role of prediction markets like Polymarket in shaping public perception and discourse is becoming increasingly significant. These platforms offer a real-time glimpse into the collective sentiment and expectations of voters and political analysts, providing valuable insights into the unfolding electoral process.
Conclusion
President Joe Biden’s potential exit from the 2024 presidential race marks a critical juncture for the Democratic Party. With key figures like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi expressing concerns about his viability, the pressure is mounting for a decisive resolution. As the Democratic National Convention draws near, all eyes will be on Chicago, where the party will unveil its nominee and set the stage for the upcoming election battle.
