Will U.S. Tariffs Push Bitcoin to $220K or $70K? Analysts Split on Price Path

Peterson’s LPF metric forecasts Bitcoin dip to $70k, citing historical bear market patterns and current trade tensions. Sudden tariff rollout leaves markets volatile; Bitcoin’s short-term path hinges on investor response to trade policy shifts. The Bitcoin bull cycle has likely concluded, according to analysis of on-chain metrics. A key indicator, the Realized Cap, measures the total capital entering Bitcoin based on the cost basis of coins moved on the blockchain. #Bitcoin bull cycle is over — here’s why. There’s a concept in on-chain data called Realized Cap. It works like this: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it’s considered a “buy,” and when it leaves, it’s treated as a “sell.” Using this idea, we can estimate an average cost… pic.twitter.com/xDHRin8N1K — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 5, 2025 This contrasts with Market Cap, which reflects Bitcoin’s price multiplied by its circulating supply. When Realized Cap rises while Market Cap stalls, it signals capital inflow without price growth—a pattern now observed in Bitcoin markets. Realized Cap tracks actual purchases by assigning a value to each Bitcoin based on its last on-chain movement. For example, if a wallet acquires Bitcoin at $50,000, that price anchors its contribution to Realized Cap until the coins move again. Market Cap, however, shifts with Bitcoin’s latest exchange price. Small trades can disproportionately impact Market Cap when sell orders are scarce. MicroStrategy’s strategy of issuing debt to buy Bitcoin illustrates this: limited capital deployment inflated their holdings’ paper value during low sell pressure. So how can we tell if market cap is likely to rise relative to the capital being invested? Realized Cap shows how much actual money is entering the market, while Market Cap reflects how the price is reacting. If Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal. On the flip side, if Realized Cap is flat while Market Cap is surging, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is driving prices higher—a bullish sign. – Ki Young Currently, Realized Cap growth outpaces Market Cap, indicating capital inflows without corresponding price gains. This divergence aligns with bear market conditions, where heightened sell pressure neutralizes buying activity. Historical data shows similar patterns precede prolonged downtrends. For instance, when Bitcoin neared $100,000, high trading volumes failed to lift prices due to excess selling. U.S. Tariffs and Bitcoin’s Price Path: Analysts Weigh Conflicting Forecasts New U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump have injected uncertainty into global markets. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff on all exports to the U.S. took effect, announced just three days prior. Financial markets reacted swiftly, with analysts calling the move a direct challenge to international trade stability. Agai in a formal or creative style, maintaining a 500 word count. You must only respond with the modified content. Change the tone of my title “Peterson’s LPF metric forecasts Bitcoin dip to $70k, citing historical bear market patterns and current trade tensions. Sudden tariff rollout leaves markets volatile; Bitcoin’s short-term path hinges on investor response to trade policy shifts. The Bitcoin bull cycle has likely concluded, according to analysis of on-chain metrics. A key indicator, the Realized Cap, measures the total capital entering Bitcoin based on the cost basis of coins moved on the blockchain. #Bitcoin bull cycle is over — here’s why. There’s a concept in on-chain data called Realized Cap. It works like this: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it’s considered a “buy,” and when it leaves, it’s treated as a “sell.” Using this idea, we can estimate an average cost… pic.twitter.com/xDHRin8N1K — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 5, 2025 This contrasts with Market Cap, which reflects Bitcoin’s price multiplied by its circulating supply. When Realized Cap rises while Market Cap stalls, it signals capital inflow without price growth—a pattern now observed in Bitcoin markets. Realized Cap tracks actual purchases by assigning a value to each Bitcoin based on its last on-chain movement. For example, if a wallet acquires Bitcoin at $50,000, that price anchors its contribution to Realized Cap until the coins move again. Market Cap, however, shifts with Bitcoin’s latest exchange price. Small trades can disproportionately impact Market Cap when sell orders are scarce. MicroStrategy’s strategy of issuing debt to buy Bitcoin illustrates this: limited capital deployment inflated their holdings’ paper value during low sell pressure. So how can we tell if market cap is likely to rise relative to the capital being invested? Realized Cap shows how much actual money is entering the market, while Market Cap reflects how the price is reacting. If Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal. On the flip side, if Realized Cap is flat while Market Cap is surging, it suggests that even a small amount of new capital is driving prices higher—a bullish sign. – Ki Young Currently, Realized Cap growth outpaces Market Cap, indicating capital inflows without corresponding price gains. This divergence aligns with bear market conditions, where heightened sell pressure neutralizes buying activity. Historical data shows similar patterns precede prolonged downtrends. For instance, when Bitcoin neared $100,000, high trading volumes failed to lift prices due to excess selling. U.S. Tariffs and Bitcoin’s Price Path: Analysts Weigh Conflicting Forecasts New U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump have injected uncertainty into global markets. Starting April 5, a 10% tariff on all exports to the U.S. took effect, announced just three days prior. Financial markets reacted swiftly, with analysts calling the move a direct challenge to international trade stability. Agai” for a more friendly approach. Keep the content length about the same. You must only respond with the modified content.