While Bitcoin has stolen the limelight by breaking past the $104,000 mark, XRP quietly surged nearly 10% on May 8 — yet it’s struggling to maintain that momentum. Even a long-anticipated $50 million settlement between Ripple and the SEC wasn’t enough to push the token into full breakout mode. So what’s holding XRP back, and could the next leg up finally take it above $3?
🔍 Ripple vs. SEC Ends, But XRP Stays Lukewarm
After years of courtroom drama, Ripple has finally put a cap on its legal battle with the SEC, agreeing to a $50 million settlement. For many XRP holders, this seemed like the moment that would unlock serious upside — a chance for the token to reclaim its former highs. But the market had other ideas.
Despite the bullish resolution, XRP dipped slightly after the initial rally and currently trades around $2.30. Why the stall? The answer likely lies in Bitcoin’s explosive move. As BTC roared past $104,000, attention and liquidity shifted heavily in its favor, leaving altcoins like XRP temporarily sidelined.
📉 Technicals: XRP Breaks Out, But Resistance Awaits
Zooming out to the charts, XRP recently punched through the upper boundary of a long-standing downward channel that began after it hit highs of $3.40. That breakout, coupled with a strong bullish engulfing candle, signals a potential shift in momentum. Key resistance levels now lie at $2.70 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), followed by $3.67 and a more optimistic target at $4.59.
However, XRP still faces hurdles. The Supertrend indicator hasn’t flipped bullish yet — a move that would require XRP to turn the $2.35 resistance into a confirmed support. Until then, any rally might remain tentative.
🧠 Momentum Indicators Say: “Cautious Optimism”
The MACD has remained in bullish territory since a crossover back in early April. While recent volatility has led to a few mixed signals, overall sentiment remains constructive for upward movement.
That said, a breakdown below the $2 support could invalidate the bullish setup. If that happens, eyes should shift to $1.79 — a level that’s previously acted as a safety net for XRP’s price action.
📈 Derivatives Point to Growing Bullish Bias
On the derivatives front, data from Coinglass shows XRP Open Interest climbing to $4.23 billion — its highest level since early March. While still below its all-time high of $7.86 billion, the current spike in OI, paired with a rising funding rate of 0.0115%, suggests leveraged longs are stacking up.
This kind of behavior often precedes sharp moves — either explosive upside if momentum continues, or a painful squeeze if the market turns.
⚖️ Final Settlement Could Trigger Next Wave
As part of Ripple’s settlement, the SEC has agreed to accept $50 million from Ripple’s previously seized escrow funds. If the remaining $75 million is also released and the injunction against Ripple lifted, that could mark a fundamental shift in XRP’s market outlook.
Once Bitcoin’s run cools off and investors start rotating capital into altcoins, XRP could be among the top contenders to ride the next wave — especially with legal uncertainty largely behind it.
📌 Bottom Line
XRP is at a crossroads. The breakout from its falling channel is technically bullish, but it’s playing second fiddle to Bitcoin’s dominance right now. With momentum slowly building and institutional sentiment leaning positive, XRP could still be gearing up for a major move — especially if it clears $2.35 and flips it into support.
So, will XRP hit $3? The chart says it’s possible. The market says: wait and see.
