IOTA Price Could Surge as Bullish Divergence Signals a Potential Reversal
IOTA is back on the radar of technical traders after analyst Aragorn Windbreaker pointed to a weekly bullish divergence following what he described as the most oversold RSI reading in the token’s chart history. The setup comes after years of weakness, leaving IOTA roughly 150 times below its historical peak. For long-term holders, the question is whether the latest signal marks the beginning of a larger trend reversal.
IOTA’s Chart Is Showing Early Signs of a Reversal
According to Aragorn Windbreaker, IOTA has been following a large macro WXY corrective structure. His interpretation places the initial Wave W around the 2020 period, followed by a lengthy Wave Y that began in 2021 and extended into 2026. The March 2026 low pushed IOTA below the previous Wave W low, satisfying an important condition in his proposed Elliott Wave structure.
The analyst also noted that Wave Y came close to a 1.0 Fibonacci extension, an area commonly watched by technical traders for potential completion points. That does not prove the correction is finished, but it provides a framework for why the recent low could become an important long-term reference point.
The bullish divergence is potentially more significant because it appeared after extreme downside momentum. A bullish divergence occurs when price makes a lower low while momentum indicators such as RSI form a higher low. Traders often interpret that pattern as evidence that selling pressure may be weakening.
However, divergence alone does not establish a new bull market. IOTA still needs confirmation through price structure, volume and the recovery of important moving averages. The first major technical test highlighted by the analyst is a break above the local channel resistance.
Related: IOTA Targets Global Trade Infrastructure as the $35 Trillion Market Faces a Trust Problem
A successful breakout would give traders a much stronger reason to consider the possibility of a new five-wave impulse. Aragorn Windbreaker also wants to see IOTA reclaim the weekly 50 EMA and establish higher highs, with $0.0718 identified as an important initial level.
That level could therefore become a dividing line for the next phase of the chart. A sustained move above $0.0718 would not automatically send IOTA into a major rally, but it could provide the first evidence that the long-term downtrend is losing control.
How High Could IOTA Go in a Bull Market?
If IOTA confirms the breakout, the next question becomes how far a recovery could realistically extend. Rather than immediately targeting its former all-time high, traders may want to watch incremental levels around $0.10, $0.15, $0.30, $0.50 and eventually $1 as the market tests progressively higher valuations.
A move to $0.10 would already represent a substantial recovery from recent prices, while $0.30 would place IOTA back into a valuation range that would require significantly stronger demand. At approximately 4.24 billion circulating tokens based on the September supply schedule, $0.50 would imply roughly a $2.1 billion market capitalization and $1 would imply about $4.2 billion.
Related: IOTA Mainnet Release v1.30.1 Introduces Protocol 33 for Trade Infrastructure
The $1 level is therefore ambitious but not mathematically extraordinary for a cryptocurrency with a multi-billion-dollar valuation. The bigger challenge is whether IOTA can attract enough capital and ecosystem activity to justify that valuation during a broader altcoin expansion.
Fundamentals could become increasingly important if the technical reversal develops. IOTA’s Rebased mainnet uses delegated proof-of-stake and supports Move-based smart contracts, while IOTA EVM provides an EVM-compatible environment for developers and tokenization applications.
Related: IOTA Validators Freeze Attacker Wallets Following Virtue Protocol Exploit
For IOTA holders, the most important development may therefore not be a single price target. The immediate test is whether the token can break its local resistance, reclaim the weekly 50 EMA and turn $0.0718 into support. If those conditions are met, $0.10 and $0.15 could become the first areas where the market measures the strength of the recovery, with $0.30, $0.50 and potentially $1 representing progressively more demanding bull-market scenarios.
IOTA’s chart is clearly attempting to build a different story after an extended decline, but confirmation remains essential. The bullish divergence provides an interesting starting point, while the proposed WXY completion offers a technical framework for a larger reversal. Whether that develops into a sustained IOTA bull run will ultimately depend on buyers proving that the latest low was more than another temporary bounce.
About The Author
