Solana (SOL), the native token of the Solana blockchain, has experienced a rough patch. After reaching a four-week low of $145 on June 11th, SOL underwent a significant 15.8% price decline, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. However, despite these short-term headwinds, two key indicators suggest a potential upswing for SOL in the near future.
Macroeconomic Concerns Cast a Shadow
Investor sentiment is currently cautious due to mixed economic signals in the US. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential delay on interest rate cuts has created uncertainty. The CME FedWatch tool reflects this, with the probability of unchanged rates until September now at 48%, compared to 39% a month ago. Additionally, the S&P 500 index has plateaued after reaching a record high, with investors awaiting cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Analysts like Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity trading strategy at Citigroup, warn that a higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase could trigger a broad market selloff. This potential volatility could also impact SOL’s price.
Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Hopes and Network Issues
Despite the lack of regulatory approval for cryptocurrency ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ether, SOL remains a potential candidate. Discussions by industry leaders like Matt Hougan of Bitwise suggest that SOL’s real-world applications could attract institutional investors through an ETF listing.
However, SOL’s recent performance has also been affected by internal network issues. The discovery of validators exploiting traders through “sandwich attacks” eroded investor confidence. The Solana Foundation has taken steps to address this by excluding such validators from its delegation program, aiming to disincentivize such behavior.
Signs of Underlying Strength
Despite the recent price drop, several indicators suggest that SOL might be poised for a comeback. Notably, the demand for leverage through SOL futures contracts remains steady. The funding rate, which reflects the cost of borrowing SOL for leveraged positions, has remained stable at around 0.01% per eight hours. This suggests that bulls (those expecting the price to rise) are not resorting to excessive leverage, indicating a cautious but underlying optimistic sentiment.
Furthermore, on-chain data from the Solana network reveals an increase in user numbers and transaction volume. While concerns exist about potential data manipulation due to Solana’s low fees, this issue is not unique and is also faced by competitors like Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions and BNB Chain.
Solana currently ranks fourth in terms of daily active addresses interacting with decentralized applications (dApps), with notable activity on platforms like Jupiter Exchange and Raydium. While its daily transaction volume lags behind competitors like Polygon and Arbitrum, the network continues to see active user engagement.
The Road Ahead for SOL
The stability of SOL’s derivatives market and network activity suggest that investors haven’t abandoned the project. With the potential for the broader market to stabilize and the Solana Foundation’s efforts to improve user experience, SOL’s price could return to the $170 mark. However, it’s important to remember that this is speculation, and the cryptocurrency market remains inherently volatile.
