Bitcoin Breaks From Stocks and Gold as BTC Market Cap Gains 36%, Santiment Says
Bitcoin has sharply outperformed stocks and gold since mid-August, with market intelligence firm Santiment reporting a 36% increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization since August 18. Over the same period, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, while gold declined 1.5%, according to Santiment’s latest market assessment.
The divergence marks a notable change from periods when Bitcoin traded closely alongside major risk assets and precious metals. Bitcoin began August 18 near $64,700 and later climbed above $86,000, while the S&P 500 remained near record levels and gold moved lower from its August highs. Market data shows Bitcoin gained substantially through late August and September despite continued pressure from high bond yields.
Bitcoin Finds Its Own Catalysts
Santiment linked the initial shift to capitulation among smaller Bitcoin holders. The firm said wallets holding between 0.1 and 10 BTC reduced exposure during the middle of August, creating selling pressure before liquidity and renewed demand helped reverse the trend.
The timing coincided with a significant change in U.S. Treasury buyback operations. The Treasury announced in August that it would at least double the maximum size of its long-duration liquidity-support buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation beginning September 9. One September operation was subsequently increased to as much as $6 billion.
The Treasury program is designed to improve liquidity in older, less-liquid government securities rather than directly stimulate Bitcoin demand. Its connection to the cryptocurrency rally is therefore an interpretation rather than a direct causal relationship. Santiment argues that broader liquidity conditions helped create an environment in which Bitcoin could recover as other markets remained sensitive to interest-rate expectations.
Related: Bitcoin Price Could Gain 3–5x in Current Cycle, CryptoQuant Founder Says
Bitcoin ETF flows also turned more supportive after a period of withdrawals. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $730.8 million on September 3, followed by another $174.6 million on September 4. Flows then became mixed, but additional net inflows of $159.5 million were recorded on September 17.
Those flows provide a measurable source of institutional demand, although they do not by themselves establish that ETFs caused Bitcoin’s recent gains. Bitcoin’s market is influenced by derivatives positioning, spot demand, macroeconomic conditions and other sources of capital at the same time.
Another factor highlighted by Santiment is a series of short squeezes. As Bitcoin moved above resistance levels, traders holding bearish positions were forced to buy back Bitcoin to close positions, adding demand during the advance. Short covering can accelerate an existing rally, but it can also reverse quickly when leveraged positioning becomes excessive.
Bitcoin’s Five-Week Divergence
The result has been a period in which Bitcoin has moved differently from both equities and gold. By September 22, Bitcoin was trading around $86,000, while the S&P 500 was near record territory and gold had fallen from its late-August levels. Over the 30 days through September 22, Bitcoin gained roughly 12%, compared with about 1% for the S&P 500 and a decline of more than 5% for gold.
The divergence is particularly notable because Bitcoin has historically been sensitive to changes in liquidity and interest-rate expectations. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate in September, while 10-year Treasury yields moved around the 5% level, creating an environment that would normally present a challenge for speculative assets.
Santiment therefore argues that Bitcoin is currently responding more strongly to crypto-specific catalysts, including ETF demand, institutional participation, liquidity conditions and derivatives positioning. That does not mean Bitcoin has permanently decoupled from traditional markets, however. A major change in rates, liquidity or global risk sentiment could still affect cryptocurrency prices.
The firm also warned that rising leverage and growing crowd optimism could create short-term shakeout risks. A market driven partly by short covering can experience sharp reversals when traders who entered late attempt to protect profits, particularly if new spot demand fails to absorb selling.
For traditional markets, the backdrop remains different. The S&P 500 has stayed close to record levels, but higher Treasury yields and uneven market participation remain concerns for investors. Gold has also faced pressure as expectations for tighter monetary policy have increased, although the precious metal remains sensitive to geopolitical risks and changes in real interest rates.
Bitcoin’s recent performance therefore represents a measurable divergence rather than proof of a permanent separation from global markets. If ETF demand, institutional buying and supportive liquidity conditions continue, Bitcoin could maintain its relative strength. If leverage builds faster than underlying spot demand, however, the same market structure could produce sharper pullbacks.
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