Bitcoin Price Could Gain 3–5x in Current Cycle, CryptoQuant Founder Says
Bitcoin could deliver a 3–5x gain during its current bull cycle, according to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who expects the market to behave differently from previous rallies. Ju argues that Bitcoin’s larger market capitalization and growing institutional ownership are reducing the extreme price swings that once produced both rapid 10x rallies and deep bear-market crashes.
The forecast does not provide a specific price target or date for the cycle top. Instead, Ju is describing the potential magnitude of the entire cycle. His argument is that Bitcoin has matured into a much larger asset, meaning substantially more capital is now required to generate the percentage gains that were possible when the market was significantly smaller.
Bitcoin Market Structure Is Changing
Ju’s latest view builds on CryptoQuant research showing that Bitcoin’s capital efficiency has declined across successive market cycles. In July, CryptoQuant estimated that about $697 billion in additional realized capitalization had accompanied roughly a 689% Bitcoin gain in the current cycle, compared with dramatically larger percentage returns generated by much smaller capital inflows during earlier cycles.
That relationship is important to the 3–5x thesis. As Bitcoin’s market grows, each additional dollar entering the network has a smaller percentage impact on its valuation. Ju therefore expects the current cycle to produce a substantial gain without repeating the parabolic moves of earlier Bitcoin markets.
Institutional participation is another part of the argument. Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury buyers and other large financial investors have expanded the pool of capital participating in the asset. Ju believes this shift away from a market dominated by retail-driven speculative money can reduce both the upside extremes and the severity of subsequent downturns.
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Under that framework, a less explosive bull market would not necessarily be a weaker market. Instead, Bitcoin could experience a longer and more structurally supported advance while avoiding the extreme leverage and speculative positioning associated with previous cycles. Ju expects that trade-off to eventually produce a milder bear market as well.
One of the on-chain signals highlighted by Ju is Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, with realized capitalization assigning value to coins based on the price at which they last moved. Ju said MVRV has remained above 1 throughout the current cycle, indicating that aggregate holder profitability has not entered the deeply underwater conditions associated with previous major bottoms.
The distinction does not mean every Bitcoin holder has remained profitable. Individual investors can still hold coins purchased at substantially higher prices. Rather, an MVRV above 1 indicates that Bitcoin’s aggregate market capitalization remains above the network’s realized capitalization under the metric’s methodology.
On-Chain Signals Point to a Different Cycle
Ju is also pointing to rising realized capitalization as evidence that new capital continues to enter Bitcoin. CryptoQuant uses realized cap as a way to measure the value assigned to coins based on their most recent on-chain movement, making it different from simply measuring Bitcoin’s current market capitalization.
Another signal concerns older Bitcoin holders. Ju said so-called OG whales have slowed their distribution, while large futures traders accumulated aggressive long positions around recent cycle lows. Such wallet and derivatives classifications depend on CryptoQuant’s labeling and methodology, so the data should be interpreted as an indicator of market behavior rather than proof that every large holder has stopped selling.
The CryptoQuant founder also highlighted the firm’s PnL Index, which tracks profitability conditions across Bitcoin holders. According to Ju, the 365-day moving average of the index is now showing a meaningful inflection point, a development he considers significant because longer-term profitability measures can lag changes in market direction.
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The broader PnL framework is designed to track how profitable Bitcoin holders are across the market and how that profitability changes during different stages of a cycle. Ju’s interpretation is that current readings are consistent with a market becoming less extreme, with higher levels of profitability appearing during downturns than in previous cycles.
Bitcoin’s recent price action adds context to the thesis. The cryptocurrency reached about $87,395 on September 21, its highest level since late January, after recovering substantially from lows near $58,000 in late June. At the time of recent reporting, Bitcoin was trading around the mid-$86,000 range.
The scale of the potential move can also be illustrated without treating it as a prediction. If a 3–5x cycle were measured from Bitcoin’s late-June low near $58,000, the resulting range would be roughly $174,000 to $290,000. Those figures are mathematical scenarios based on Ju’s stated multiple, not price targets issued by CryptoQuant.
Ju’s thesis ultimately rests on a changing relationship between capital, market size and volatility. Bitcoin now requires vastly more capital to generate the percentage gains seen during its earliest cycles, while institutional participation may provide a more persistent source of demand. CryptoQuant’s own research has previously estimated that another extreme parabolic move could require more than $1 trillion in additional realized capital.
For Bitcoin investors, the important part of Ju’s argument is therefore not simply the 3–5x figure. It is the claim that Bitcoin may be entering a stage where lower upside volatility comes with lower downside volatility as well. Whether that pattern holds through the remainder of the current cycle will depend on capital flows, holder behavior, leverage and broader market conditions.
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