Blockchain analytics platform Santiment says XRP has reached historically depressed valuation levels, with both short-term and long-term holders sitting deeply underwater according to its latest MVRV analysis.
In a post shared on social media, the firm said XRP’s 30-day MVRV currently sits near -45% while its 365-day MVRV is around -47%. MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, is an on-chain metric used to estimate whether the average holder of a cryptocurrency is sitting on unrealized profits or losses. Negative readings generally indicate that most holders are underwater relative to their average acquisition cost.
Santiment argued that the combination of these readings represents the weakest average return profile seen for XRP across those timeframes in the asset’s roughly 12-year trading history. The firm suggested that such extreme pessimism often appears near periods of market exhaustion, when fear and frustration among investors become unusually elevated.
Why Analysts Watch MVRV Closely
MVRV has become one of the most widely followed on-chain indicators because it helps gauge how profitable or unprofitable the average investor is. When the metric falls deeply into negative territory, selling pressure from profit-taking tends to diminish because fewer holders are sitting on meaningful gains.
Historically, similar conditions across major cryptocurrencies have sometimes coincided with attractive long-term accumulation zones. However, analysts generally caution that MVRV is not a timing tool. Assets can remain undervalued for extended periods, particularly during broader market downturns.
Santiment itself acknowledged that XRP could still decline further if the wider crypto market weakens. Rather than predicting an immediate reversal, the firm’s analysis frames the current setup as potentially offering a more favorable risk-reward profile than average because a significant amount of downside has already been absorbed by existing holders.
Broader Market Factors Still Matter
For XRP, on-chain metrics are only one part of the picture. The asset’s performance continues to be influenced by broader cryptocurrency market conditions, institutional demand, regulatory developments, and adoption of the XRP Ledger.
Recent months have also seen investors focus on macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, liquidity conditions, and flows into crypto investment products, all of which can have a larger impact on market direction than a single valuation indicator.
Related: XRP Flashes Two Bullish Technical Signals as Network Activity Rises
As a result, while historically low MVRV readings may suggest that sentiment has become extremely bearish, they do not guarantee that a market bottom is already in place. Traders and investors typically combine MVRV with other indicators—including volume, network activity, liquidity trends, and technical analysis—to build a more comprehensive view of potential market conditions.
Still, the latest data highlights just how negative investor sentiment around XRP has become. If broader crypto markets stabilize and demand returns, the current MVRV readings could be remembered as one of the more severe capitulation signals in XRP’s history. Whether that translates into a sustained recovery remains an open question.
