Bitcoin’s 2022 Midterm Sell-Off Was Driven by FTX, Not the Election, Santiment Data Suggests
Bitcoin’s performance around the 2022 US midterm elections is being revisited as traders look for clues about how political events might influence cryptocurrency markets in 2026. Santiment argues that the roughly 23% decline recorded between the eve of the 2022 vote and November 21 had far more to do with the collapse of FTX than the election itself.
The comparison matters because election-related market narratives can become misleading when major events happen at the same time. In November 2022, the US midterms coincided with one of the most damaging crises in crypto history, making it difficult to attribute Bitcoin’s decline to political uncertainty alone.
Bitcoin closed November 7, 2022, at approximately $20,603. The following day, US voters went to the polls while Binance announced a non-binding agreement to acquire FTX.com, which was struggling with a severe liquidity crisis.
By November 9, Bitcoin had fallen to approximately $15,881 as Binance abandoned the proposed acquisition. The cryptocurrency later closed November 21 at approximately $15,787, representing a decline of roughly 23.4% from its November 7 closing price.
FTX Dominated Crypto Conversations During the 2022 Midterms
Santiment’s social analytics offer another way to understand what was driving market attention during that period. Between November 3 and November 9, the term “FTX” reportedly attracted nearly 11 times as many mentions as “midterm” across the platforms tracked by the analytics firm.
The difference became even more pronounced as the exchange’s problems escalated. Between November 10 and November 16, when FTX entered bankruptcy proceedings, FTX-related mentions reportedly exceeded midterm discussions by approximately 50 times.
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This suggests that crypto participants were paying substantially more attention to the exchange crisis than the political developments taking place in the United States. The distinction is important because social attention can help identify the narratives dominating investor discussions, although it does not independently establish what caused Bitcoin’s price movements.
The timeline supports that interpretation. Binance announced its proposed acquisition on November 8, withdrew on November 9 after reviewing FTX’s finances, and FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on November 11. Bitcoin’s sharp decline unfolded alongside these developments, rather than following a simple election-driven pattern.
Related: Bitcoin Faces Q4 2026 Risk as BTC Fell in All 3 Recent US Midterm Election Years
Bitcoin’s 2026 Midterm Performance Offers a Different Picture
The 2026 comparison has so far produced a different result. Bitcoin closed November 2, the day before the US midterm elections, near $76,677. It subsequently climbed to approximately $80,405 at the November 4 close, an increase of roughly 4.9%.
One date distinction is worth making: the 2026 federal election took place on November 3, while November 4 was the following day, when results were being reported. The price comparison therefore captures Bitcoin’s performance across election day and the immediate aftermath, rather than a November 4 polling day.
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The positive move does not establish that midterm elections are bullish for Bitcoin. It simply shows that the 2022 decline should not automatically be treated as a template for every subsequent election cycle. Different market conditions, liquidity levels and industry events can produce very different outcomes.
Santiment’s central warning is therefore relevant to traders assessing political risk. Bitcoin’s 2022 decline was closely associated with the FTX crisis, while its 2026 advance occurred without an equivalent exchange collapse dominating the market narrative. One positive post-election session cannot establish a recurring pattern, just as the 2022 sell-off cannot prove that midterm elections are inherently bearish.
Related: Ripple Leaders Reject Claims of Crypto Election Setback, Point to Bipartisan Congressional Wins
For investors, the more useful lesson is to examine the events unfolding alongside political milestones. Exchange failures, regulatory developments, institutional flows and broader financial conditions can have a much more direct influence on cryptocurrency prices than the election calendar itself. Bitcoin’s next direction will depend on those underlying market forces, not simply on whether voters have finished casting their ballots.
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